The Rapid Decarbonisation Project
 
 
 

What is the Project?

The Rapid Decarbonisation Project is a research theme developing a risk-based approach to adaptive management in greenhouse gas mitigation, considering whether these risks warrant more rapid decarbonisation of the economy than currently planned under global policies and negotiations. The initial questions being addressed, and for which we invite contributions, are:
  • How can we quantify and otherwise characterise the risks from climate change under different trajectories of decarbonisation so climate change policy is harmonised with the risk-based approach used in many other areas of environmental policy?
  • If we quantify the uncertainties in climate change risks in ways similar to the level of detail provided in other areas of environmental policy such as air toxics - summarised as probability density functions on the timing and magnitude of any harms that might result from climate change - is there a compelling argument for a policy trajectory that significantly increases the rate of decarbonisation of the global economy beyond that currently envisioned under international discussions?
  • How is this argument related to frameworks of decisions under uncertainty, adaptive management, and the Precautionary Principle?
  • How is it related to issues of equity and justice, including inter-generational responsibilities and the divide between the richest and poorest nations, as well as differences in the vulnerability of nations?
  • How is it related to other issues such as peak oil, energy security or fuel poverty?
  • How compelling are these arguments for public policy and private sector decisions?
Following the answers to these questions, the project will turn to risk management issues, examining the ways in which the needed trajectories of decarbonisation might be implemented, and the feasibility of creating global institutional and market capacity to deliver on these trajectories. From these conclusions, we also will draw suggestions for the trajectory of reduction required by the UK economy, and by implication, the economies of other developed nations.
 
The answers to the questions we pose are being explored through a series of workshops in Cambridge, Oxford and London. They can be found at the Workshops part of this website.
 
 
Who runs the Project?
 
The Rapid Decarbonisation Project is administered by the E3 Foundation in collaboration with with the University of Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR). Participation in the Project is open to other individuals with an interest in the subject. Participants in the Project are invited to engage in the discussions, or add Attachments and Comments at the bottom of any of the pages.

 
Key Research Questions
 
The Rapid Decarbonisation Project aims initially to answer the following five questions:
  • What is the uncertainty in the risk of climate change, in regard to the severity of effects and likelihoods of these occurring?
  • How can this uncertainty be quantified and otherwise characterised to better inform decisions on public policy and/or private sector investments?
  • What is the relationship between calls for rapid decarbonisation in developed economies and issues of inter-generational and international equity and justice?
  • What are the implications of these risk estimates, their attendent uncertainties and issues of equity/justice for identifying the trajectory of emissions reductions required to satisfy criteria of "margins of safety", the Precautionary Principle, responsibility and protection of vulnerable populations?
  • Are these implications sufficient to warrant a trajectory of decarbonisation significantly faster than the current target of proposed international agreements and/or discussions?
Note: We do not assume incorporating uncertainty or equity/justice into risk-based decisions on climate change will push necessarily towards policies of either more or less rapid decarbonisation. On the one hand, uncertainty and equity/justice typically cause policies to become more stringent when margins of safety are built in as a response to the Precautionary Principle and protection of the most vulnerable populations. The same is true when damage functions increase rapidly with degree of climate change and expectation values on damage are used in economic analyses. On the other hand, risks that are well away from "best" or "central tendency" values have significantly reduced evidential support and confidence, and this support may fall below a standard of miminal epistemic status considered in this project.
 
 
Phases of the Project
 
As with all E3 Projects, the Rapid Decarbonisation Project takes place in four phases:
 
Definition phase: This phase establishes clearly the problem contributors are intended to address and is summarised in the Research Objective. We ask:
  • What are the goals and objectives of the Project?
  • How do we define the problem?
Self-Organisation phase: This phase establishes the methodology to be used by contributors in performing the analysis and is summarised in the Research Framework. We ask:
  • Who can contribute on what topic?
  • What work has already been done on these subjects?
  • What questions remain unanswered?
  • What other information do we need to provide reliable answers?
Open phase: This phase establishes the network of collaborators for the Project and invites them to make contributions to the writing of the final report. Here we solicit contributions from other people around the world from our network of contacts. E3 Fellows also write ourselves on the topics of discussion as arranged in the self-organisation phase.
 
Synthesis phase: This phase produces the final products of the Project. It draws together the contributions of different people in the synthesis phase.  It produces a final report summarising the main findings and the evidence/analyses supporting these, and a Policy Briefing Paper to distribute to policy makers.

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